Bryan Routledge
Professor Bryan Routledge (Ph.D. ,University of British Columbia, 1996): My research applies computational methods to a variety of financial models. For example, I have used genetic algorithms and other adaptive processes to model learning about gathering and using financial information. I am also interested in equilibrium models for commodities like oil, natural gas, and electricity. The research project (which is joint with Duane Seppi and Chester Spatt) seeks to link important physical characteristics like storage and refinement to prices through a simple micro-economic equilibrium. The research helps characterizes properties of derivative prices like intertemporal features (e.g., backwardation) and cross-commodity relations (e.g., "Spark Spread"). Modeling the physical constraints requires solving dynamic programming problems computationally. Current research (with Stanley Zin) is investigating the role of ambiguity or uncertainty in derivative pricing. Uncertainty, or the inability to characterize the stochastic environment with a single probability measure, has important implications for market liquidity and the "flight to quality" that is often observed during a financial crisis. Finally, my teaching includes a class on Venture Capital and Private Equity. In the class we apply Monte Carlo simulation methods to help in the valuation of start-up companies.
Articles by this Author
Equilibrium Forward Curves for Commodities
- By Bryan Routledge
- Published 10/1/2007
- Price modeling
- Unrated
Keywords:
Published in: Journal of Finance
Publication year: 2000
Co-author 1: Duane J. Seppi
Co-author 2: Chester S. Spatt
We develop an equilibrium model of the term structure of forward prices for storable commodities. As a consequence of a nonnegativity constraint on inventory, the spot commodity has an embedded timing option that is absent in forward contracts. This option’s value changes over time due to both endogenous inventory and exogenous transitory shocks to supply and demand. Our model makes predictions about volatilities of forward prices at different horizons and shows how conditional violations of the “Samuelson effect” occur. We extend the model to incorporate a permanent second factor and calibrate the model to crude oil futures data.
Published in: Journal of Finance
Publication year: 2000
Co-author 1: Duane J. Seppi
Co-author 2: Chester S. Spatt
We develop an equilibrium model of the term structure of forward prices for storable commodities. As a consequence of a nonnegativity constraint on inventory, the spot commodity has an embedded timing option that is absent in forward contracts. This option’s value changes over time due to both endogenous inventory and exogenous transitory shocks to supply and demand. Our model makes predictions about volatilities of forward prices at different horizons and shows how conditional violations of the “Samuelson effect” occur. We extend the model to incorporate a permanent second factor and calibrate the model to crude oil futures data.

