Craig Pirrong

Dr. Pirrong previously was the Watson Family Professor of Commodity and Financial Risk Management, and Associate Professor of Finance at Oklahoma State University. He joined the faculty of the Bauer College of Business at the University of Houston as Professor of Finance and the Energy Markets Director for Global Energy Management Institute in January, 2003. He has also served on the faculty of the University of Michigan Business School, the Graduate School of Business of the University of Chicago, and the Olin School of Business of Washington University in St. Louis. He holds a Ph.D. in business economics from the University of Chicago.

Professor Pirrong's research focuses on the economics of commodity markets, the relation between market fundamentals and commodity price dynamics, and the implications of this relation for the pricing of commodity derivatives. His recent research is concentrated on the power markets. He has created a power derivatives pricing model that links observable fundamentals (e.g., temperature, loads) to power derivatives prices. Professor Pirrong has also published extensively on the economics of financial exchanges. He has published 30 articles in professional publications and is the author of three books. Professor Pirrong has consulted widely. His clients have included electric utilities, major commodity processors and consumers, and commodity exchanges around the world.

 Articles by this Author

Keywords:
Published in:
Publication year: 2000
Co-author 1: Martin Jermakyan

Pricing contingent claims on power presents numerous challenges due to (1) the nonlinearity of power price processes, and (2) time dependent variations in prices. We propose and implement an equilibrium model in which the spot price of power is a function oftwo state variables: demand (load or temperature) and fuel price. In this model, any power derivative price must satisfy a PDE with boundary conditions that reflect capacity limits and the non-linear relation between load and the spot price of power. Moreover, since power is non-storable and demand is not a traded asset, the power derivative price embeds a market price of risk. Using inverse problem techniques and power forward prices from the PJM market, we solve for this market price of risk function. During 2000, the market price of risk represented as much as 50 percent of PJM powerforwardpricesfordelivery during summer months. This is plausibly due to the extreme right skewness of power prices;this induces left skewness in the payoff to short forward positions, and a large risk premium is required to induce traders to sell power forwards. This huge risk premium suggests that the power market is not fully integrated with the broader financial markets. The data also suggest that power forward prices overreact to current demand shocks.