- Home
- Price modeling
- Electricity Prices: Stochastic or Deterministic?
Electricity Prices: Stochastic or Deterministic?
- By Adriaan de Lange
- Published 09/27/2007
- Price modeling
- Unrated
Adriaan de Lange
Adriaan J.P. de Lange was born in Alkmaar, the Netherlands on October 21, 1957. He obtained his M.Sc. in Electrical Engineering from the Delft University of Technology in 1986. In 1988, after conscription, he started working in the Power Industry. First as a mechanic and tester, later as an engineer and finally as project manager, mostly with ‘Siemens AG Bereich KWU’, building fossil power plants in the Netherlands and abroad. He received a Ph.D. for research on ‘Three Phase Synthetic Testing of HV Circuit Breakers’ at Delft University of Technology in 2000, and he received an MBA at Webster University (campus Leiden) the same year.
Currently Dr. De Lange is working as a technical and business consultant for the Power Industry..
In this paper (Spot) Electricity Prices are analyzed.
Fluctuations in Electricity Prices – as they come about on the new energy Markets - turn out to be deterministic to a large extent. This is very different from (Spot) Market Prices for Stocks, Currencies, Interest or common Commodities, like Wheat or Oil, which are best treated as pure stochastic variables. Therefore the (Geometric) Brownian Motion Price Theory - as is commonly used for Stocks and other markets - does not work for Electricity. Instead a much simpler and better descriptive Market Based Price Forecasting methodology is proposed.