- Home
- Asset optimization
- Optimal Strategies for Investment in Generation of Electric Energy through Real Options
Optimal Strategies for Investment in Generation of Electric Energy through Real Options
- By Julia Cristina Caminha Noronha
- Published 12/18/2008
- Asset optimization
- Unrated
Julia Cristina Caminha Noronha
J C C Noronha (M’07) received the B.Sc. (1976), and M.Sc. (1999) degrees in Electrical Engineering from Federal University of Itajuba (UNIFEI), Brazil. She was a professor at UNIFEI from 2002-2004 and 2007-2008, where is concluding her D.Sc. degree. She was with ESCELSA from 1977-1995 and serves as a consultant for many distribution power utilities.
View all articles by Julia Cristina Caminha Noronha
Published in X SEPOPE - 2006: CAMINHA-NORONHA, J. C.; MARANGON-LIMA, J. W.; FERREIRA T. G. L. The Brazilian electric sector has two market-environments for the energy supply: a regulated pool (ACR), with 64 power distribution companies, and the free market (ACL), including free-consumers and energy wholesalers. In the regulated market, the power generation competition is enforced via energy auctions, where the winning generator has to sign long-term standard power purchase agreements (PPA) simultaneously with all distributors at the bidding-price. In this work we use the Real Options Theory to valuate new hydraulic generation assets, which will be traded in the new energy auction. This approach models the uncertainties in setting up the cash flow for the investments and incorporates some possible managerial flexibility associated with the decision taken along the investment forecast. A real example is presented, in which we incorporated the flexibilities regarding the waiting to invest in a new hydro power plant and an abandon option, representing the transfer of concession rights. Since the project involves a multistage investment consisting of design, construction and operation phases, it can be treated as a sequential compound option. A binomial approach was elaborated to model this investment opportunity analysis.

