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- Modeling highly volatile and seasonal markets: evidence from the Nord Pool electricity market
Modeling highly volatile and seasonal markets: evidence from the Nord Pool electricity market
- By Rafal Weron
- Published 01/7/2008
- Price modeling
- Unrated
Rafal Weron
Associate Editor of Computational Statistics, Journal of Energy Markets, and Surveys in Mathematics and its Applications, his research focuses on risk management and forecasting in the power markets and computational statistics as applied to finance and insurance. His other interests include stochastic modeling, time series, heavy tailed distributions, and computer simulations of highly volatile phenomena.
View all articles by Rafal WeronIn this paper we address the issue of modeling spot electricity prices. After analyzing factors leading to the unobservable in other financial or commodity markets price dynamics we propose a mean reverting jump diffusion model. We fit the model to data from the Nord Pool power exchange and find that it nearly duplicates the spot price’s main characteristics. The model can thus be used for risk management and pricing derivatives written on the spot electricity price.
