This website serves the energy market community in the exchange of knowledge.
This non-profit website has been developed in order to provide an easier access to research and articles available in this area, but which is often hard to find.
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o Share access to energy market articles
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The target user group and audience: (quantitative) analysts, traders, risk managers, researchers, business developers, financial managers, consultants and policy makers.
Erasmus Energy is willing to publish all kinds of articles on energy markets. Main topics are risk-management, trading, valuation and market development. Articles should be relevant and clear.
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Featured Articles
Realistic power plant valuations
- By Cyriel de Jong
- Published 08/27/2009
- Valuation
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Published in WorldPower 2009
Authors: Henk Sjoerd Los, Hans van Dijken, Cyriel de Jong. KYOS Energy Consulting
The large investments in new power generation assets illustrate the need for proper financial plant evaluations. Traditional net present value (NPV) analysis disregards the flexibility to adjust production decisions to market developments, and thus underestimate true plant value. On the other hand, methods treating power plants as a series of spread options ignore technical and contractual restrictions, and thus overestimate true plant value. In this article we demonstrate the use of volatility and cointegration to incorporate market fundamentals and calculate dynamic, yet reasonable, spread levels and power plant values. A practical case study demonstrates how various technical and market constraints impact plant value. It also demonstrates that plant value may contain considerable option value, but 64% less than with the usual real option approaches. We conclude with an analysis of static and dynamic hedges affecting risk and return profiles
Recent Articles
Optimal Strategies for Investment in Generation of Electric Energy through Real Options
- By Julia Cristina Caminha Noronha
- Published 12/18/2008
- Asset optimization
- Unrated
Published in X SEPOPE - 2006: CAMINHA-NORONHA, J. C.; MARANGON-LIMA, J. W.; FERREIRA T. G. L. The Brazilian electric sector has two market-environments for the energy supply: a regulated pool (ACR), with 64 power distribution companies, and the free market (ACL), including free-consumers and energy wholesalers. In the regulated market, the power generation competition is enforced via energy auctions, where the winning generator has to sign long-term standard power purchase agreements (PPA) simultaneously with all distributors at the bidding-price. In this work we use the Real Options Theory to valuate new hydraulic generation assets, which will be traded in the new energy auction. This approach models the uncertainties in setting up the cash flow for the investments and incorporates some possible managerial flexibility associated with the decision taken along the investment forecast. A real example is presented, in which we incorporated the flexibilities regarding the waiting to invest in a new hydro power plant and an abandon option, representing the transfer of concession rights. Since the project involves a multistage investment consisting of design, construction and operation phases, it can be treated as a sequential compound option. A binomial approach was elaborated to model this investment opportunity analysis.


